In 2023, e-commerce GMV will increase tenfold. Is the goal of "TikTok" reliable?

According to Bloomberg and Yahoo Finance, a source in Byte said that in 2022, the total transaction volume of TikTok's e-commerce business is targeted at $2 billion, and by 2023, the total annual e-commerce transaction volume is targeted at $23 billion, which is more than 10 times higher than that in 2022.
Source: If this is what Yahoo Finance expects from TikTok, then e-commerce in TikTok will need to enter the TikTok outbreak period from the second half of 2022 to 2023, because compared with 2021-2022, it will double from 6 billion yuan to 12 billion yuan (about 1.8 billion dollars, 36 kr data, comparable to 2 billion dollars from foreign media), and increase by 10 times from 2022-2023.
TikTok's "confidence" in e-commerce is on the same frequency as that of businesses.
According to the report of Zhixiang in May, in April 2022, TikTok's global single day GMV will reach 6.4 million dollars.
If it can maintain such achievements after April, or even achieve faster growth, then TikTok's small goal in 2022 is reasonable and achievable.
In order to achieve the big goal of 23 billion dollars next year, rough calculation shows that the daily average global e-commerce GMV needs to reach about 63.88 million dollars.
At present, in addition to Southeast Asia and Europe and the United States, TikTok does not seem to show signs of developing e-commerce in other markets.
However, in the communication with practitioners, it is also found that there are many areas for improvement in TikTok.
We temporarily believe that the 10 times growth is still shared by Southeast Asia and Europe and the United States.
Although Southeast Asia is an emerging market, it is likely to become the main player for various reasons.
EMarketer data shows that e-commerce sales in Southeast Asia will increase by 58.5% in 2020 compared with the previous year, but from 2022 to 2025, the growth rate of e-commerce scale in Southeast Asia will slow down, with the growth rate not exceeding 15%.
Forecast of changes in retail e-commerce sales from 2020 to 2025 | Source: eMarketer looks specifically at the range from 2022 to 2023.
eMarketer forecasts that the overall size of the e-commerce market in Southeast Asia will increase by US $12.52 billion.
Therefore, if TikTok's e-commerce revenue in 2023 still depends mainly on Southeast Asia, then to achieve 10 times+e-commerce growth in the platform, At least in Southeast Asia, it is also necessary to share the GMVs of other e-commerce platforms and improve the value of the original consumers on the platform.
Compared with the Southeast Asian market, although the overall growth rate of e-commerce in the European and American markets after 2020 is lower than that in Southeast Asia, the base is much higher.
EMarketer data shows that the e-commerce sales volume of the U.S.
retail market in 2022 is expected to be 357.2 billion dollars, which is the e-commerce forecast rule of Southeast Asia in 2025